AT&T upgrading to HSPA+ but will it ensure reliability??

Stephen Lawson of IDG News Service recently mentioned in his article why AT&T needs to spend $5 Billion on its wireless network. I agree with him on this as AT&T has to catch up with the coverage offered by Verizon Wireless.

Though AT&T boasts of the fastest 3G Network and it might be too, but customer satisfaction and connection reliability index especially in urban areas are the two main reasons which might blur AT&T's image. And with inclusion of bandwidth hungry smartphone (iPhone primarily) users in its portfolio, loading their networks and juicing out the backhaul, situation might get out of control for AT&T  unless they start acting on it. Apart from the loading the other important factor which I mentioned earlier is coverage which affects the reliability.

Issue 1: 3G Speed & Reliability Tests

AT&T's 3G network is based on HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) and an upgrade to HSPA+, a system designed to deliver as much as 7.2M bps (bits per second). Verizon uses EV-DO (Evolution-Data Optimized), which that carrier said offers as much as 1.4M bps in real-world performance. The speed of the network for individual subscribers depends on a variety of factors. But what matter here is the reliability along with the speed. The PC World test, conducted by Novarum last year, found mixed results for network speeds among AT&T, Verizon and Sprint but showed AT&T in last place for reliability in all 13 cities tested.

The above analysis puts light on The "reliability" score depicts the percentage of  the tests in which the service maintained an uninterrupted connection at a reasonable speed (faster than dial-up) for Verizon, Sprint and AT&T in 13 different cities.

Issue 2: CAPEX on wireless infrastructure

Recent reports from TownHall Investment Research depicts that AT&T is short on CAPEX behind key competitor Verizon and Sprint on its Wireless infrastructure. AT&T's capital expenditures on its wireless network from 2006 through September 2009 totaled about $21.6 billion, compared with $25.4 billion for Verizon and $16 billion for Sprint (including Sprint's investments in WiMax operator Clearwire). Over that time, Verizon has spent far more per subscriber: $353, compared with $308 for AT&T. Even Sprint has outspent AT&T per subscriber, laying out $310 for network capital expenditure. That investment shortfall has been the major cause of AT&T's poor network performance, which has been reflected in tests by Consumer Reports and PC World The other issue is AT&T invests more in its wired infrastructure than in its wireless network, even though the wireless business contributes a majority of the carrier's profit. AT&T gets 57 percent of its operating income from wireless and only 35 percent from wired services, but wireless only gets 34 percent of the capital expenditures, with the wired network taking up 65 percent of that spending.

Issue 3: Backhaul Capacity

Along with invest in upgrades to HSPA 7.2 in the base stations, AT&T needs to remove the backhaul bottlenecks to accommodate high speed data in the core. The backhaul limiting the speeds is the primary concern  as I mentioned in my previous post for operators choosing the right backhaul solution considering the capex/opex. The $5 billion investment gap could expand to $7 billion because of the need for new backhaul capacity to link AT&T's wireless network into the wired Internet.

Issue 4: Old Infrastructure

Another looming problem for AT&T is that its E911 emergency calling system, which works on its older GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) network, hasn't been adapted to use 3G and is unlikely to make the migration soon. That means AT&T will have to maintain that old network for the foreseeable future, including possibly more capital investment for more power-efficient GSM equipment.

Solutions:

Hot on the heels of T-Mobile USA's announcement that it upgraded its 3G footprint to HSPA 7.2, AT&T Mobility said it upgraded its own 3G cell sites across the country with HSPA 7.2 software. However, AT&T clarified that it is still working to deploy increased backhaul capacity to the sites, a job that it will continue into 2011. With this the customer experience will definitely get a boost with improvement in consistency in the data sessions access. So apart from base station upgrades and increasing backhaul capacity AT&T needs to add more number of  base stations especially in the urban areas where the user confidence level is shaky and expand their coverage.  AT&T has already started taking some smart steps by moving the 3G service to its longer range 850MHz radio band in the San Francisco area which seems to have helped coverage there, and the company will probably take that strategy nationwide while testing coverage in specific areas and "surgically" increasing capacity. So the ball is in AT&T's court and they have to act, spend and expand !!

- Neil Shah

References: Analyst: AT&T Needs to Spend US$5B to Catch up by Stephen Lawson, IDG News Service A Day in the life of 3G: Mark Suvillan, PC World AT&T plans to double 3G speeds Ian Paul, PC World AT&T upgrades cell sites to HSPA7.2 software: by Phil Goldstein, Fiercewireless.com

Future of Multicast & Broadcast Services in Advanced Wireless Networks

With the evolution of Smartphone and exponentially growing market for high speed multimedia services the network needs to be smarter for delivering an exhilarating user-experience. .The transformation of mobile devices industry led by advent of successful smartphones such as Blackberry, Apple iPhone the users have become more data hungry and demanding more interactive services loading the mobile network operator's network.Multicast and Broadcast services (MBS) is the solution that will not only cater this need efficiently but also attract a large subscriber base. MBS offers real time streaming services, audio-video on demand, multiplayer online gaming, localized services, news advertisements, stocks bringing the most anticipated services at your finger tips.

MBS in 3rd Generation and 4th Generation Wireless systems requires efficient network resource utilization in access and core networks along with scalable and reliable service platforms. Also, it should incorporate the mobility aspects to continuously deliver multimedia information over an efficient air interface.

The major MBS technologies used in various 3G/4G deployment models are Media FLO by Qualcomm, DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting-Handheld) by DVB, MBBS by 3GPP and BCMCS by3GPP2. These technologies have garnered much attention for the revenues they can bring to terminal suppliers, network equipment suppliers, mobile operators, broadcast operators, service providers and even governments.

The main analysis considering the different old as well as new evolving use cases with the MBS technologies supporting these different services can be mapped as follows:

Considering the above use-cases we can draw insights:

1. Selection: The selection of particular MBS technology by the mobile network operator should be based on following criteria

2. Cost: For heavy duty broadcast applications the resources required would be greater in a 3G network compared to a Broadcast only network such as MediaFLO or DVB-H and hence the cost.
Whereas for light applications and highly interactive applications MBMS or BCMCS would be the ideal choice saving on resources by multicasting to the subscribed group of users instead of broadcasting it to every user in the network. Also, due to availability of an uplink channel, highly interactive applications can be easily supported on the mobile terminal providing a better user experience. Also, from unicasting perspective, with Multicast usage there is a considerable resource savings in core network and radio access network where the radio bearers are lesser than number of users compared to the number of bearers which is equal to number of users in unicast transmissions

3.Reach: MediaFLO and DVB-H have a larger cell size and hence a larger footprint which again thus requires lesser base stations covering groups of subscriber services. But again due to the existing vast coverage of the 2G/3G cellular network, these base stations can be easily upgraded to MBMS/BCMCS capabilities with a comparatively greater reach though smaller individual footprint.

4. Interactivity: Broadcast only networks are limited due to the lack of backward channel and hence no interactivity. But the interactivity can be implemented by using network operator’s feedback channel.

5.Mobile Terminal: In the current scenario, for specific applications such as Live TV, broadcast only technologies like MediaFLO or DVB-H might prove to be more efficient but the downfall is the corresponding handsets should be available to receive such broadcasts so that is an additional cost to the MNO’s.

6.Business Implicaitons: The broadcast and multicast are complimentary technologies where broadcast can be used for stimulating users to subscribe to the services and multicast services are used to cater specific endusers which eventually subscribes t ospecific services which generate revenues for the operators.

7.Mobile Trend: There is a significant growing trend towards a large number of interactive applications with the advent of modile web due to the availability of smartphones with a larger form factor and advanced capabilities. So most of the NGN will be equipped with cutting edge resource efficient technologies supporting heavy duty streaming and at the same time supporting a higher level of interactivity and a richer user experience with a better continous data connectivity and seamless mobility

Thus with a strong MBS technology selection by the MNO and a lucrative business model a smart telecom value chain is possible and with higher order benefits.